The Economist recently did one of their periodic debates, this time on the pace and effects of technological progress. Moderator Ryan Avent framed the debate thus:
This leads some scholars to conclude that accelerating technical change is an illusion. Autonomous vehicles and 3D printers are flashy but lack the transformative power of electricity or the jet engine, some argue. Indeed, the contribution of technology to growth may be weakening rather than strengthening. Others strongly disagree, noting that even in the thick of the Industrial Revolution there were periodic slowdowns in growth. Major new innovations do not generate immediate economic results, they reckon, but provide a boost over decades as firms and households learn how to use them to make life easier and better. The impressive inventions of the past decade—including remarkable growth in social networking—have hardly had time to make themselves felt across the economy.
Which side is right? Is technological change accelerating, or has most of the benefit from the IT revolution already been realised, leaving the rich world in the grip of continued technical stagnation?
Taking the “pro” position on technological progress is Andrew McAfee of MIT; taking the “con” position is my colleague Robert Gordon, whose recent work on technological stagnation has been widely discussed and controversial (see here a recent TED talk that Bob gave on technological stagnation and one from MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsoon on the same TED panel).
McAfee starts by pointing out that stagnation arguments rely on short-run data (post-1940s is definitely short run for technological change, as Bob also argues). Often 100 years is more of the timescale for looking at technological change and its effects, and since modern digital technology is mostly a post-1960 phenomenon, are we being premature in declaring stagnation? McAfee also points out that the nature of the changes in quality of life arising from technology makes those changes hard to capture in economic statistics. In the Industrial Revolutions of the 19th century, mechanical changes and changes in energy use led to large, quick productivity effects. But the nature of digital technology and its effects is more distributed, smaller scale but widespread, and focused on the communication of information and the ability to control processes. That makes for different patterns of both adoption and outcomes from the adoption of digital technology. It also makes for more distributed new product/service innovation at the edges of networks, which is another substantively different pattern in economic activity than seen in the 19th/early 20th century.Kevin Kelly also made many of these observations in a January 2013 EconTalk podcast with Russ Roberts.
I am, not surprisingly, sympathetic to this argument…